The Third Pole centered on the Tibetan Plateau is the place to look for early warning signs of global warming. The region has warmed by about 1.8 °C over the past half century, significantly higher than the warming rates for the Northern Hemisphere and the global mean. Annual and seasonal temperatures have increased more at higher elevation zones across the Third Pole. Glaciers are retreating, permafrost degrading, and snow cover days decreasing at the Third Pole.
It is estimated that the Third Pole will see “peak water” on average between 2030 and 2050, when annual glacier runoff will reach a maximum, and will only decrease after that. In some places, the peak water may even arrive earlier than 2030. Changes in snow cover, permafrost and glaciers at the Third Pole can affect water availability for 1.7 billion people with a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$ 12.7 trillion. Rapid changes in glaciers may lead to natural hazards such as ice collapse, glacier surging, glacial debris flow, as well as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF).
To monitor environmental changes at Third Pole,
TPE has established an observation network which includes 51 sites tracking glacier thickness changes, 35 on glacier mass balance, 16 following permafrost changes, 6 on snow cover changes as well as 16 collecting hydrological and meteorological data.
The network is still growing with new technologies enabled by TPE-related science projects, Pan-TPE and STEP in particular.
To fulfill its commitment to local communities, TPE has given priority to hazard-related scientific services. TPE has set up ice collapse monitoring stations following massive ice collapses occurred on July 17 and Sept. 21, 2016 in the western Third Pole (Aru ice collapses) and on Oct. 17 and Oct. 29, 2018 in the southeastern Third Pole (Sedongpu ice collapses). The Aru ice collapses in 2016 caused nine human casualties and the loss of hundreds of livestock, while the Sedongpu ones in 2018 blocked the Yarlung Zambo River. The early warning system set up by TPE scientists in 2019 has since sounded alert for Sedongpu ice collapses.
Tethered balloons are employed to track water vapor and
drones are deployed to places too remote for human access. TPE also has satellite and unmanned surface vehicles (USV) in its toolbox for a 3D view of Third Pole environmental changes.
TPE 3D Observation Toolbox
Data collected from the TPE observation network are stored and managed at the
National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), a platform established in 2019 with
TPE being the core contributor. The data center now boasts over 2387 datasets covering geography, atmospheric science, cryospheric science, hydrology, ecology, geology, geophysics, natural resource science as well as social sciences, all accessible for over 31600 (and growing) users worldwide thanks to the global network of TPE. While making data “findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR)” through TPDC, TPE also gives priority to intellectual property rights protection. Digital Object Identifiers (DOI) are used for TPDC data access, tracking, and citation. A cloud service platform is also being developed at TPDC with support from TPE for the extensive integration of data, methods, models and services, with a view of enabling big data analysis in Third Pole research.
With that, TPE works to ensure better access to Third Pole data and information at regional to global scale with its global partners including WMO, UNEP and UNESCO. In January 2019, TPE organized
International Workshop on Cryosphere and Water Cycle Observation-Modelling Integration over the Third Pole and identified key areas, research questions, variables and processes for enhanced observations and model analyses by working/action groups. An action plan was developed, highlighting convection, water vapor transport, glacier fluctuations, precipitation, water/hydrology and super site. Built on this workshop, TPE held the
International Workshop on the Asian Water Tower in July 2019, where 50 international experts came together to develop strategies in the face of Asian Water Tower changes. The workshop gives priorities to observation, modeling and impact studies as it draws up research plans for international cooperation. Following the workshop, TPE has proposed observation-data-modeling integration plan, which was endorsed by
WMO in High Mountain Summit.
“With the observation network and the data center, TPE will be better informed to steer global research resources to topics that’s both scientifically and socially challenging.”Said Prof. YAO Tandong, TPE co-chair, who initiated the TPE Program in 2009 with two other co-chairs Prof. Lonnie G Thompson and Prof. Volker Mosbrugger. TPE has since enabled a series of productive workshops, research and observation networks as well as training courses for young scientists.
