The research , published in Nature Ecology & Evolution in July, reveals that small, wild giant panda populations are facing a certain degree of extinction risk over the next hundred years. These populations include 15 groups out of the total 33 that face a probability of extinction exceeding 90%, according to the scientists. The estimate is based on simulations by individual-based models, a type of ecological quantitative modelling tool.

 

“Small populations in fragmented and isolated habitat patches face a high risk of local extinction—even in protected areas,” said Dr. Kong Lingqiao , first author of the study and a scientist at the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences .

 

The panda populations are vulnerable to demographic and environmental fluctuations. For example, a small population with a large share of old pandas faces a high long-term survival risk due to its low population growth.

 

Since panda groups have difficulty incorporating new members, changes in habitat also make individual groups more vulnerable to extinction. For example, panda habitats are becoming more fragmented and isolated due to construction of infrastructure and transportation networks, as well as creation of cropland, residential areas and tourism facilities.

 

Climate change is also exacerbating these problems, according to the research. Under a simulated scenario in which average global surface temperature increases 2 °C by 2065 and increases by additional 1.7 °C by 2100 relative to the 1986–2005 period, the number of separated wild giant panda populations would rise to 56 in 2100. Furthermore, the number of populations with a probability of extinction exceeding 90% would increase to 35.

 

Under another simulated scenario in which the temperature rises by 1.4 °C by 2065 and additional 0.4 °C by 2100, the number of separated panda populations would rise to 39.

 

Creation of the Giant Panda National Park will probably connect a number of large population habitats. Small populations would also benefit from this connection, thus reducing their risk of extinction. The panda census shows that there are 17 panda populations with a total of 1,631 giant pandas living in the habitants covered by the national park. If the habitats in the national park are connected, the number of isolated populations would be reduced from 33 to 21.

 

As part of national efforts to protect wild pandas, a national park system was launched in 2017, covering panda reserves stretching across Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces. The scientists predict the overall number of wild pandas would increase slowly thanks partly to the national park.

 

With the increasing habitat fragmentation of wildlife globally, the high risk to small populations of giant pandas is an example of what many other species face worldwide, according to the study. “Almost all large wild animals face the threat of habitat fragmentation. We hope this study can suggest some implications of conservation for other species in the world that live in isolated, fragmented habitats,” said Prof. Ouyang Zhiyun, corresponding author of the study.

 

Editor’s note: The study is supported by STEP, a Third Pole Environment (TPE) related science project.